Trading guide
Trading metrics explained
Trading metrics explained in one place: win rate, profit factor, expectancy, average win and loss, R multiple, max drawdown, recovery factor and the Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar ratios, each with its formula. Start with expectancy and max drawdown: they tell you if you have an edge and what it costs to hold.
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The core trading metrics are win rate (wins ÷ trades), profit factor (gross profit ÷ gross loss), expectancy (win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss) and max drawdown (largest fall from a peak). Risk-adjusted ratios such as Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar compare return with volatility or drawdown.

Quick answers
What is the expectancy formula in trading?
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). With a 40% win rate, a $300 average win and a $150 average loss, expectancy is 0.4 × 300 − 0.6 × 150 = $30 per trade.
What is the Sharpe ratio formula?
Sharpe ratio = (average return − risk-free rate) ÷ standard deviation of returns. It measures return per unit of total volatility. It is usually annualised, for example by multiplying a daily Sharpe by the square root of 252.
What is the Sortino ratio formula?
Sortino ratio = (average return − target return) ÷ downside deviation. It works like Sharpe but only counts volatility from returns below the target, so big winning days do not count against you.
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The formulas
Every trading metric in one table
| Metric | Formula | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | Winning trades ÷ total trades | How often you win. Means little without payoff. Calculator, glossary. |
| Average win / loss | Gross profit ÷ winners; gross loss ÷ losers | The size of a typical win and loss. Their ratio is your payoff. |
| Profit factor | Gross profit ÷ gross loss | Above 1 means profitable. Calculator, glossary. |
| Expectancy | Win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss | Average result per trade. Glossary. |
| R multiple | Trade P&L ÷ initial risk | Results in units of risk: +2R is twice what you risked. Glossary, risk reward calculator. |
| Max drawdown | Largest fall from an equity peak to a later low | The worst loss you had to sit through. Glossary. |
| Recovery factor | Net profit ÷ max drawdown | How many times profit covers the worst drawdown. MetaTrader 5 uses net profit ÷ balance drawdown. |
| Sharpe ratio | (Average return − risk-free rate) ÷ standard deviation of returns | Return per unit of volatility. |
| Sortino ratio | (Average return − target) ÷ downside deviation | Return per unit of downside volatility only. |
| Calmar ratio | Annual return ÷ max drawdown | Return against the worst drawdown, often over 36 months. |
| Risk of ruin | Chance of a set drawdown before your edge plays out | Calculator. For sizing, see the Kelly criterion calculator. |
Which to use
Which metrics matter most
Do I have an edge?
Expectancy and profit factor. Positive expectancy and a profit factor above 1 over a decent sample mean your trades make money on average.
Can I live with it?
Max drawdown and recovery factor. A strategy with a $5,000 net profit and a $1,250 max drawdown has a recovery factor of 4.
Is it smooth?
Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar. Useful for comparing strategies or funds; less useful with only a few dozen trades.
Your real numbers
Your metrics, worked out for you
Dusk Analyst works out your net P&L, win rate, profit factor, average win, average loss, max drawdown and best and worst day from your closed trades, and splits results by setup, session and tag. Expectancy follows from those with the formula above. It does not report Sharpe, Sortino or Calmar ratios. Calculate this from your real trades: import your MT4/MT5 history on the Free plan, or auto-sync MT4, MT5, cTrader or NinjaTrader 8 on Pro.
Sources
Where these numbers come from
How it works
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See it in action
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Trading psychology
Mistakes, habits and what the numbers say
Auto-sync setup
How do I connect my platform?
Auto-sync (MT4, MT5, cTrader, NinjaTrader) is on Pro ($25/month), free for your first 5 trading days with no card. The Free plan imports your platform's history file.
Pricing
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FAQ
Trading metrics questions, answered.
What is the Calmar ratio?
The Calmar ratio is annual return divided by maximum drawdown, usually measured over the last 36 months. A Calmar ratio of 2 means the yearly return was twice the worst drawdown.
What is recovery factor in MT5?
In MetaTrader 5 testing statistics, recovery factor is net profit divided by balance drawdown (MQL5 documentation, checked November 2026). Higher is better: the strategy earned its worst drawdown back more times.
What is a good profit factor?
Above 1 is profitable; many traders look for 1.5 or more over a large sample. Very high values on few trades usually do not last. Check yours with the profit factor calculator.
What is the difference between Sharpe and Sortino?
Sharpe divides excess return by all volatility. Sortino divides it by downside volatility only, so a strategy with large winning days is not penalised for them.
How many trades do I need for these metrics to mean anything?
More is better. Win rate and profit factor from 10 trades are mostly noise; many traders want at least 30 to 100 trades before trusting them.
Is Dusk Analyst really free?
Yes. The free tier costs $0 forever and includes two accounts, manual trade entry and CSV import - enough to journal a live account properly, with win rate, P&L and equity curve all calculated for you. There is no credit card required to start. Pro ($25/month flat) adds unlimited accounts, MT4/MT5/cTrader/NinjaTrader auto-sync, AI insights on your trading (1,000 trade-analyses a month), monthly reports and full export, and every new account gets Pro free for 5 trading days with no card. The pricing is deliberately simple: one plan, one price, no per-feature upsells.
Is there a free trial?
Yes, and it needs no card. Every new Dusk Analyst account gets Pro free for 5 trading days from sign-up: auto-sync from MT4, MT5, cTrader and NinjaTrader 8, AI Insights with 1,000 credits, monthly reports and unlimited accounts. After that Pro is $25/month, and you can cancel anytime from Billing in the app. If you skip it, the account moves to Free with every trade kept.
Can I import my existing trade history?
Yes - CSV import is available on every plan, including free. If you've been tracking trades in a spreadsheet, broker export or another journal, export the CSV from wherever it lives and import it into Dusk Analyst; the journal matches it against your accounts and keeps your history continuous. Import is also the fallback for platforms that don't run MT4, MT5, cTrader or NinjaTrader 8. For MT4/MT5/cTrader/NinjaTrader terminals, Pro auto-syncs going forward and the EA backfills any trades your terminal missed while it was off. Any platform that exports a CSV of your trade history works. Dusk Analyst recognises TradingView, Tradovate, cTrader, MT4 and MT5 exports on sight; for anything else you map your columns once and that parser is saved for next time. Comma, semicolon and tab files are all handled, day-first and month-first dates are detected from the file itself, and any row that cannot be read is listed for you rather than dropped quietly.
How many AI credits do I get with Dusk Analyst Pro?
Pro includes 1,000 AI trade-analyses every month. One credit covers one trade, so asking a question about a 40-trade week costs 40 credits and you can keep asking. The allowance resets on the 1st of each month and the counter sits in the top bar of the app, so you always know where you stand. Narrowing a question to one account or a shorter date range makes the same allowance go much further. Free accounts get a small number of AI credits to try AI Insights, alongside the full journal, analytics and weekly reports, and the free Pro week (5 trading days, no card) includes the full monthly allowance.
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