Trading research
How many day traders are profitable?
How many day traders are profitable? Very few: a study of Taiwan day traders found less than 1% could predictably earn positive returns after fees, and a Brazilian study found 97% of persistent day traders lost money. Here are the sources, with years.
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Very few day traders are profitable. Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean (2014) found less than 1% of Taiwan day traders could predictably earn positive returns after fees over 1992 to 2006. Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti (2020) found 97% of Brazilian futures day traders who kept going for 300 days lost money.

Quick answers
What percentage of day traders are profitable?
In the largest studies, only a small minority. In Taiwan, less than 1% of day traders were predictably profitable after fees (Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, 2014). In Brazil, 97% of day traders who traded for at least 300 days lost money (Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, 2020).
How many forex traders are profitable?
Most retail forex and CFD traders lose money. EU and UK brokers must state the share of their retail CFD accounts that lose money: as of November 2026, IG shows 70% and Pepperstone UK shows 73.6%. In 2018 ESMA reported that 74% to 89% of retail CFD accounts typically lose money.
How many swing traders are profitable?
We could not find a reliable study that measures swing traders separately. The broker CFD warnings cover all retail clients, swing traders included, and show most accounts lose money. Treat any exact swing trader figure you see without a source as a guess.
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The studies
What the research actually found
| Source | Who | Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, Journal of Financial Markets, 2014 | Day traders in Taiwan, 1992 to 2006 | Less than 1% of the day trader population could predictably and reliably earn positive abnormal returns net of fees. The top 500 from one year earned 37.9 basis points a day after fees the next year; the bottom group lost 28.9 basis points a day. |
| Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, FGV working paper, 2020 | Everyone who began day trading Brazilian equity futures in 2013 to 2015 and kept going for at least 300 days | 97% lost money. Only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 a day). The best earned US$310 a day with a standard deviation of US$2,560. No evidence of learning. |
| ESMA, 2018 | Retail CFD accounts in the EU | 74% to 89% of retail accounts typically lose money. |
| Broker warnings, as of November 2026 | Retail CFD and spread bet accounts | IG: 70% lose money. Pepperstone UK: 73.6% lose money. |
What it means
Why so few stay profitable
Costs add up
Day traders pay spread and commission many times a day. In the Taiwan study, the top traders' next-year returns fell from 61.3 to 37.9 basis points a day after fees.
Skill is rare
The Taiwan study found top-ranked traders kept outperforming the next year and bottom-ranked traders kept losing. A small group has an edge; most do not.
Time alone does not help
The Brazil study found no evidence of learning by day trading. Practice alone did not create an edge.
Your own numbers
Find out if you are profitable
Studies describe the crowd. Your own trades say whether you are in the minority. Look at your net P&L after costs, your profit factor and your expectancy over at least a few months. Calculate this from your real trades: import your MT4/MT5 history on the Free plan, or auto-sync MT4, MT5, cTrader or NinjaTrader 8 on Pro.
Related: trading metrics explained, common trading mistakes, risk of ruin calculator.
Sources
Where these numbers come from
- Barber, Lee, Liu, Odean: The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill, Journal of Financial Markets 2014 (IDEAS/RePEc abstract), checked Nov 2026
- Chague, De-Losso, Giovannetti: Day Trading for a Living?, FGV EESP TD 525, 2020 (IDEAS/RePEc abstract), checked Nov 2026
- ESMA: agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs (2018), checked Nov 2026
- IG UK: CFD risk warning (70%), checked Nov 2026
- Pepperstone UK: CFD risk warning (73.6%), checked Nov 2026
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FAQ
Profitable trader questions, answered.
Is the 90% of traders lose money figure true?
We found no single study behind the popular 90% figure. Sourced figures point the same way, though: 97% of persistent Brazilian day traders lost money, and EU and UK broker warnings show 70% or more of retail CFD accounts lose money.
Where does the less than 1% figure come from?
From Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Day Trading, Journal of Financial Markets, 2014. It covers day traders in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006.
Can you make a living day trading?
The Brazil study's title asks exactly that. Its answer: only 0.4% of persistent day traders earned more than a bank teller's pay of US$54 a day. It is possible only for a very small minority.
Why do brokers publish how many accounts lose money?
EU and UK rules on CFDs require brokers to show the share of their retail accounts that lose money in a risk warning. The rule followed ESMA's 2018 measures, which cited 74% to 89% of retail CFD accounts typically losing money.
Do prop firm traders do better?
We have not found an independent, audited study of prop firm pass and payout rates. Figures quoted online usually come from the firms themselves, so treat them with care.
Is Dusk Analyst really free?
Yes. The free tier costs $0 forever and includes two accounts, manual trade entry and CSV import - enough to journal a live account properly, with win rate, P&L and equity curve all calculated for you. There is no credit card required to start. Pro ($25/month flat) adds unlimited accounts, MT4/MT5/cTrader/NinjaTrader auto-sync, AI insights on your trading (1,000 trade-analyses a month), monthly reports and full export, and every new account gets Pro free for 5 trading days with no card. The pricing is deliberately simple: one plan, one price, no per-feature upsells.
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How many AI credits do I get with Dusk Analyst Pro?
Pro includes 1,000 AI trade-analyses every month. One credit covers one trade, so asking a question about a 40-trade week costs 40 credits and you can keep asking. The allowance resets on the 1st of each month and the counter sits in the top bar of the app, so you always know where you stand. Narrowing a question to one account or a shorter date range makes the same allowance go much further. Free accounts get a small number of AI credits to try AI Insights, alongside the full journal, analytics and weekly reports, and the free Pro week (5 trading days, no card) includes the full monthly allowance.
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