Trading research

How many day traders are profitable?

How many day traders are profitable? Very few: a study of Taiwan day traders found less than 1% could predictably earn positive returns after fees, and a Brazilian study found 97% of persistent day traders lost money. Here are the sources, with years.

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Peer-reviewed studiesRegulator dataBroker disclosures, checked Nov 2026

Very few day traders are profitable. Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean (2014) found less than 1% of Taiwan day traders could predictably earn positive returns after fees over 1992 to 2006. Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti (2020) found 97% of Brazilian futures day traders who kept going for 300 days lost money.

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Quick answers

What percentage of day traders are profitable?

In the largest studies, only a small minority. In Taiwan, less than 1% of day traders were predictably profitable after fees (Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, 2014). In Brazil, 97% of day traders who traded for at least 300 days lost money (Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, 2020).

How many forex traders are profitable?

Most retail forex and CFD traders lose money. EU and UK brokers must state the share of their retail CFD accounts that lose money: as of November 2026, IG shows 70% and Pepperstone UK shows 73.6%. In 2018 ESMA reported that 74% to 89% of retail CFD accounts typically lose money.

How many swing traders are profitable?

We could not find a reliable study that measures swing traders separately. The broker CFD warnings cover all retail clients, swing traders included, and show most accounts lose money. Treat any exact swing trader figure you see without a source as a guess.

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The studies

What the research actually found

SourceWhoFinding
Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, Journal of Financial Markets, 2014Day traders in Taiwan, 1992 to 2006Less than 1% of the day trader population could predictably and reliably earn positive abnormal returns net of fees. The top 500 from one year earned 37.9 basis points a day after fees the next year; the bottom group lost 28.9 basis points a day.
Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, FGV working paper, 2020Everyone who began day trading Brazilian equity futures in 2013 to 2015 and kept going for at least 300 days97% lost money. Only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 a day). The best earned US$310 a day with a standard deviation of US$2,560. No evidence of learning.
ESMA, 2018Retail CFD accounts in the EU74% to 89% of retail accounts typically lose money.
Broker warnings, as of November 2026Retail CFD and spread bet accountsIG: 70% lose money. Pepperstone UK: 73.6% lose money.

What it means

Why so few stay profitable

Costs add up

Day traders pay spread and commission many times a day. In the Taiwan study, the top traders' next-year returns fell from 61.3 to 37.9 basis points a day after fees.

Skill is rare

The Taiwan study found top-ranked traders kept outperforming the next year and bottom-ranked traders kept losing. A small group has an edge; most do not.

Time alone does not help

The Brazil study found no evidence of learning by day trading. Practice alone did not create an edge.

Your own numbers

Find out if you are profitable

Studies describe the crowd. Your own trades say whether you are in the minority. Look at your net P&L after costs, your profit factor and your expectancy over at least a few months. Calculate this from your real trades: import your MT4/MT5 history on the Free plan, or auto-sync MT4, MT5, cTrader or NinjaTrader 8 on Pro.

Related: trading metrics explained, common trading mistakes, risk of ruin calculator.

Sources

Where these numbers come from

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<1%of Taiwan day traders predictably profitable (2014)
97%of persistent Brazil day traders lost money (2020)
70%+of retail CFD accounts lose money (broker warnings)

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FAQ

Profitable trader questions, answered.

Is the 90% of traders lose money figure true?

We found no single study behind the popular 90% figure. Sourced figures point the same way, though: 97% of persistent Brazilian day traders lost money, and EU and UK broker warnings show 70% or more of retail CFD accounts lose money.

Where does the less than 1% figure come from?

From Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Day Trading, Journal of Financial Markets, 2014. It covers day traders in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006.

Can you make a living day trading?

The Brazil study's title asks exactly that. Its answer: only 0.4% of persistent day traders earned more than a bank teller's pay of US$54 a day. It is possible only for a very small minority.

Why do brokers publish how many accounts lose money?

EU and UK rules on CFDs require brokers to show the share of their retail accounts that lose money in a risk warning. The rule followed ESMA's 2018 measures, which cited 74% to 89% of retail CFD accounts typically losing money.

Do prop firm traders do better?

We have not found an independent, audited study of prop firm pass and payout rates. Figures quoted online usually come from the firms themselves, so treat them with care.

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Yes. The free tier costs $0 forever and includes two accounts, manual trade entry and CSV import - enough to journal a live account properly, with win rate, P&L and equity curve all calculated for you. There is no credit card required to start. Pro ($25/month flat) adds unlimited accounts, MT4/MT5/cTrader/NinjaTrader auto-sync, AI insights on your trading (1,000 trade-analyses a month), monthly reports and full export, and every new account gets Pro free for 5 trading days with no card. The pricing is deliberately simple: one plan, one price, no per-feature upsells.

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